December 12 – Triangle Global Health Consortium: Climate Change, Food Security, and Population in Sub-Saharan Africa
Date: Thursday, December 12, 2013
Time: 7:30 a.m. (soft stop at 8:30 am, hard stop at 9 am)
Topic: Climate Change, Food Security, and Population in Sub-Saharan Africa
Speaker: Scott Moreland, Ph.D., Senior Fellow and economist at the Futures Group
Location: Dogwood Conference Room, North Carolina Biotechnology Center, 5 TW Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-3547
Call-in option: Toll free dial-in number: 1-800-848-2116, access code 27705#
Cost: TGHC will cover expenses for members (including students/faculty/staff at member universities and individuals who are employees of member organizations); There is a $5.00 charge for non-members that can be paid at check-in.
Please RSVP here by close-of-business Thursday, December 5th.
THIS MONTH’S SPEAKER: Scott Moreland (Ph.D., Duke) is a Senior Fellow and economist at the Futures Group with over 35 years of experience in academia, the private sector and in international development assistance. He has specialized in computer simulation modeling for resource poor countries and has developed models of population growth, economic growth, labor and manpower supply, water and sanitation, child mortality, gender interventions, climate change, food security and education. Prior to joining Futures Group in 1995, he worked for RTI International and was a lecturer in Economics at the University of Warwick, England. He currently leads Futures Group’s team on the MEASURE Evaluation Project (with UNC) and contributes to the global Health Policy Project.
Developing countries face ever increasing challenges in the area of food security. Among these challenges, climate change is arguably one of the most serious and wide-spread threats, since it affects all regions of the world, albeit not equally. There is growing evidence that climate change is decreasing the productivity of many crops around the world, thus increasing the risk of food shortages in developing countries where agricultural systems are low-tech and malnutrition is common. While population growth is often mentioned as a contributing factor to food insecurity in developing countries, changing the rate of population growth is rarely seen as a policy alternative, especially when addressing strategies to adapt to climate change.
We developed a computer simulation model to help clarify the dynamic relationships between climate change, food security, and population growth. The model was tested and piloted in Ethiopia. It shows that the food security gap in Ethiopia is expected to be greater with climate change than the food security gap without climate change and the potential of family planning to address this gap. In fact, by the year 2050 the model estimates that slower population growth will compensate completely for the effects of climate change on food insecurity.